Bob Noel writes:

sigh statistics don't show safety (consider that no one actually knows the
distribution function). But applying accepted safety analysis techniques
would likely show airplanes can be trusted more than pilots. Here's one
issue with that: what is the reliability of any specific pilot?

The human variable always has the largest range.

I'm sure there are pilots who could safely fly a broken washing
machine back into the airport, and would survive just about any type
of situation conceivable. There are also pilots who would kill
themselves in every one of those same situations, thanks to a serious
lack of skill or prudence. The only variable that changes is the
pilot. So pilots make a big difference.

I daresay that the number of accidents in which no pilot could have
possibly saved the day is very small. Similarly, the number of
accidents or in-flight incidents that even the worst pilot could
handle is also very small. So it usually depends on who is at the
controls when bad things happen. Indeed, depending on the pilot,
things that should be routine can become deadly, and vice versa..

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