Stefan writes:

But completely wrong.

If only that were true.

We know very little about the atmosphere of the planet and about
large-scale weather patterns, even though we know the equations that
govern atmospheric phenomena on a small scale. We do not have enough
data to accurately predict the weather, and there is no way to get
enough data. Even if we had it, we don't have the computing power to
make use of it. All weather prediction beyond 24-48 hours is based to
a large extent on speculation. The chaotic behavior of weather
ensures that we cannot get it right for more than a very short period
in the future.

Over the long term, the number of variables increases by orders of
magnitude. We don't understand the effects of any but a handful of
them, and even then, their long-term effects are unknown. We have no
way of knowing anything at all, really. We like to think that we know
it all, and we like to think that changes are our own doing (even when
they are bad changes), but we are woefully incorrect on both counts.

The future also depends on other variables that we cannot know in
advance, such as solar energy production. It depends on variables
that we haven't discovered yet, much less accurately measured.

While it's commendable to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas produced
by human beings, we don't really know if it will make any difference,
nor do we know if it has made any difference thus far. We can only
guess.

It seems that the most difficult thing for human beings to accept is
humility.

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