340,000 Pilots Needed For The Next 20 Years?
Larry Dighera writes:
Boeing alleges that 340,000 pilots will be needed to fill the seats of
the aircraft currently on order.
I think that fuel may run out before pilots run out.
Does anyone else find that lowering the bar for pilot training in the
name of necessity to fill the cockpits of airliners currently on order
is a recipe for reduced air safety?
Yes.
One can argue that increased automation can compensate for a lower skill level
among pilots, and this is true. It is possible to fly commercial airliners
mostly by just pressing buttons already. However, pilots with lower skill
levels are less likely to be able to handle exceptional situations, when the
automation fails, and unfortunately that's the whole purpose of having pilots.
There are many skills that airline pilots will probably never be called upon
to use in their jobs. Pilots who lack these skills will be just as competent
within the envelope of the job, and they'll be cheaper and faster to produce.
As I've said before, some countries are already moving in this direction,
training pilots exclusively for the actual task of flying an airliner, with
minimal instruction in anything that they aren't likely to encounter in that
task. Training pilots exclusively in simulators is also an option being
explored, although the mere fact that simulators are used doesn't necessarily
mean that the training is inferior.
Most pilots today lack the flight engineering skills required to deal with
complex engine and pressurization problems. However, such problems are very
rare today, so that's not much of an issue. Indeed, many modern aircraft
don't give pilots a great deal of control over these systems, and automate
most normal and exceptional procedures, so even a pilot who knows what to
adjust when something goes wrong may simply not have the controls to do so.
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