wrote:

FAS shows probability of a fighter kill by SA-18 as somehwere between
30 and 50 percent. Not sure how that was measured. Therefore, I'd
imagine that PK on a liner taking off, is near 1. Most of them have
two engines now. Good luck gaining altitude with one out. But today on
CNN I read it's about 50/50 which sound like BS to me.

If you are expecting the airliner to crash simply because of the loss
of a single engine (out of two or more) after takeoff, then Pk would be
around zero. Airliners are required to safely continue the climbout
after the loss of an engine. Such performance is checked during
the planning/preflight stage, and if they don't have the performance,
then they have to offload fuel or cargo (including passengers) until
they are light enough to make the required performance.

Of more concern that engine performance is other damage to the
aircraft due to the missile strike, or even due to catastrophic
failure of the damaged engine. Fuel fire (the wings are typically
"wet"), damage to control surfaces or the hydraulic systems which
power them, etc., may well cause the aircraft to crash, but the
simple loss of thrust from the engine won't.

Mike