On Wed, 09 May 2007 20:41:48 -0700, Richard Riley
wrote in
:

On Wed, 09 May 2007 20:36:27 GMT, Larry Dighera
wrote:

So it would seem that Boeing is predicting the worldwide airline fleet
to double within the next 20 years. Is there any wonder that Boeing
is pushing for ATC modernization? Imagine the NAS with twice as many
airliners in flight at any given time. Clearly that is not possible
with the current technology and infrastructure. And with UAVs poised
to start filling the NAS with freight haulers, the NAS is going to
become even more congested well before 20 years hence.

UAV freight haulers? In the NAS? Not in our lifetimes. Pilots are
cheap by comparison.

You may be correct, but some UAV experts seem to disagree.

"Package delivery/freight" is listed as a suitable civil use of UAVs
by Sara Waddington (as published in Unmanned Vehicles magazine
Business Analysis Forecast December 2002):
http://www.uavworld.com/_private/reports/civil.htm

And LocMart is apparently developing a cargo UAV:

http://www.anyfreight.com/snews/index.php?id=2437
Lockheed Martin and Kaman will develop an UAV cargo helicopter
Washington, USA - The United States signed a contract of 3.5
billions dollar with the two industries
...
Past year the first K-MAX unmanned prototype successfully passed a
12 hours test without refueling round New England using the
autopilot utilizing only a pre-tracked course and his on-board
navigation system.

The helicopter will be 6 meters and it's weight will be 6000
pounds, its ceiling altitude should round 15.000 feet.
...
(024) 070509134959-1073418 (World Aeronautical Press Agency -
2007-05-09 01:49 pm)


And overseas:

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/7/DAP_ORA_...tter_May05.pdf
Once a technological solution to the ‘sense and avoid’ requirement
becomes available (and it will in a few years), a demand for
civilian and military UAVs will probably quickly emerge. Civilian
applications could include police and fire service surveillance,
passenger and freight, coastal surveillance/patrol, agricultural
and geographic survey, power and pipeline inspections, mobile
phone and broadband relay etc. and as such will involve operations
in all classes of airspace.


Upon what credible information do you base your prognostication?

[...]

Ummm... artificially make something rare, the price goes up.

I'm not suggesting anything artificial be created.

You've got to agree, that NAS airspace is a finite resource. As such,
there is doubtless an amount of air traffic beyond which it could be
said that its capacity has been exceeded. Given that today there are
some ~5,000(?) flights aloft at any given moment, what might the
maximum number be?