In message , Dav1936531
writes
Or, with the upcomming war against North Korea, we can just explain to the
Iraqis that they've become just too much of a drain on our resources, pull all
our forces out, and leave them to their own devices to sort out their problems.
Of course, that means civil war. This is one of the dangers faced by Iraq that
the Iraqis themselves may not be considering. The time to sort out their
problems is very short.

They really need to start hustling and cooperating with US forces to root out
Saddam and whoever else is conductiing guerilla operations against the
occupation before the tax paying population of the US decides it is just
"casting it's pearls before swine" in Iraq: i.e., that the reconstruction
efforts, and its costs, do not have any proportional payback in additional
security to the US in terms of 1) reduction of a terrorist threat to the US, or
2) of securing a realiable oil supplier.

You assume that the individuals with the power want a US-aligned
outcome.

All it needs is a faction whose goal is "grab and hold power at any
cost, take all the money, slowly and horribly kill anyone who annoys us"
- fits the Ba'ath Party nicely - and they're left _praying_ for a hasty
US withdrawal.

Of course, this is the perfect time for a crash WME program.

Probably too smart for the Ba'ath, but if I had a faction in Iraq and
was a ruthless scumbag that's what I'd do. Stay feared until the Yanks
get bored and leave, grab power ASAP, then rush at some seriously
photogenic Weapons of Mass Effect to (a) fend off acquisitive neighbours
like Turkey and Iran, (b) to make the US leave us alone this time. Not
militarily, just politically... "not _more_ 'alleged Iraqi chemical
weapons!')



Don't think from the viewpoint of a sensible Iraqi citizen wanting a
quiet life: he doesn't get any say in matters. Everyone else, from the
criminals to the terrorists to the Old Regime, want the US gone first
and fighting over the carcass is 'aftermath'.

--
When you have to kill a man, it costs nothing to be polite.
W S Churchill

Paul J. Adam MainBoxatjrwlynch[dot]demon{dot}co(.)uk