As I argued earlier today, a plausible guess for the number of VFR-
into-IMC crashes in 2006 is 7 or 8 (with a possible range from 0 to
49).

Oops, small correction: 7 or 8 was the guess for PTS-proficient VFR-
into-simple-IMC crashes. The guess for ALL VFR-into-IMC crashes was
30, with a possible range from 25 to 49.