I can't imagine that happening. Until there is a replacement for 100LL,
with the number of aircraft flying in the US, there will be a supply from
somewhere. The big question will be the cost.

Mike Schumann

"Bill Daniels" bildan@comcast-dot-net wrote in message
. ..

"Dave Newill" wrote in message
...
On Mar 4, 12:32 am, "Mike Schumann" mike-nos...@traditions-
nospam.com wrote:
They will keep making TEL untill it is no longer profitable.

I visited GAMA headquarters to understand the situation on AvGAs from
their expert. He said that the tanker (ship) that carries the TEL will
be decommissioned in a few years - that will not stop it from being
shipped from its source (Russia) as it will simply be put into triple
walled sea-tainers - but the amount shipped each time will be smaller
and the insurance - as it is being shipped with other goods - will be
higher.

It will not go away - but it will be very expensive -however there is
so little of it in the fuel that it thankfully does not take much.
Also note that it is not shipped by pipeline - must be shipped by
truck so as not to pollute the pipes! Finally, there is a Friends of
the Earth petition getting hearing in congress to remove lead from all
fuels - if you think we have problems - think about all those outboard
motors out there!



The only producer of TEL is the Octane Additives Division of Innospec
(formerly Octel) - A UK based company. I believe, but can't find
referencable sources, that the actual TEL production is at a plant near
Madras, India. I have found no references to Russian production.

From reading press releases in financial publications, it appears that
revenue and profitability of the OA division is in a steep decline
(50%/year). The parent company is loading accounting charges onto the
Octane Additives Division in the form of "Goodwill Impairments". They are
also making statements to the effect that the future business of the
division will be "environmental remediation activities". The company is
now accepting bids in India for the dismantling and desposal of the worlds
only TEL tanker ship. This looks like an imminent shutdown of TEL
production.

I did find a comment that there is a six months supply of TEL in the US.
It appears to a casual reader that the end for TEL may indeed very near.

Bill D






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