Dylan Smith wrote:
On 2008-04-15, Dudley Henriques wrote:
I'm FAR from being any kind of an expert on these matters, but I can't
help but wonder, considering the fact that the world's economies are so
completely dependent on oil for survival, that the world has waited WAY
too long on this issue and that we have already passed the point where
the changes necessary and either implemented or discovered, can no
longer be made in time to make any difference in the inevitable outcome;
......a self made dooms day scenario so to speak.

There are really two possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: The oil production declines at a rate that's too fast for
the market to respond: the economy collapses before alternatives are
developed.

Scenario 2: The oil production declines at a rate where market forces
have time to work, such that more and more alternatives become
economically viable (cheaper than oil), and as they are developed,
become steadily less expensive due to technological improvement and
competition.

I'm an optimist, I think we'll do Scenario 2. There may be some pain on
the way, but it's interesting to note that most oil companies haven't
called themselves oil companies for some time, instead calling
themselves energy companies - and spending R&D money on developing all
sorts of energy products.


There is a Scenario 3: Oil production increases as technology advances
and allows for exploitation of oil that we can't get to now and gives us
reason to look for oil in places we don't look now because we couldn't
get to it if we found it. Of course, sooner or later you get to Scenario
2 but there is more time to do it.