Here's a "cold shower" look at the SEL market, by examining a single pending
sale:
This seller includes a V-ref printout from Oct 2006
for his 1982 Piper Warrior II PA28-161 (Vref = $62089)
At the time it was listed:
TTAF = 3122
SMOH = 792
New P&I, avg avionics.
Now it is listed:
TTAF = 3122
SMOH = 792
STOH = 0
New P&I, avg avionics, Annual done = 3/2008
V-ref (Apr 2008) for the same config is Vref = $49138.
Breakdown:
For the base aircraft avg value of $36000.
Add low AF time bump up of $1700.
Add low engine time bump up of $1900.
Add new interior bump up of $4000.
Add new paint bump up of $5500.
That's a $13000 value drop for an airplane that has been sitting in a hanger
for a year and a half. And how many buyers are going to give a $1900 adder
for an engine that has sat doing nothing? So this plane will probably go for
low forties. And that to me is a "cold shower" look at the market today.
Example ad from AOPA classifieds and web (I have no affiliation):
http://www.youmarketonweb.com/B2/1.shtm