On Wed, 22 Oct 2008 02:32:02 GMT, Eric Greenwell wrote:

Ari wrote:


"On an annual basis, that makes relying on nuclear weapons a 99% safe
maneuver. As with 99.9% safe maneuvers in soaring, that is not as safe
as it sounds and is no cause for complacency. If we continue to rely on
a strategy with a one percent failure rate per year, that adds up to
about 10% in a decade and almost certain destruction within my
grandchildren's lifetimes."

Your math is off, risk is not cumulative.

Absolutely right! But here's the deal: 0.99 to the 10th power is .904
(90% safe, 10% unsafe).

So what you are saying is that the power is equal to the number of years
(decade)?
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJVydzNJrno