"PaPa Peng" wrote in message
...
I am still not used to posting procedures.

Anyway two points I want to make.

1. The US wouldn't dream of threatening China by sailing of a carrier
group in the Taiwan Straits or in "International waters" close to
China at this stage of the game. The political fallout wouldn't be
worth whatever that show of force is supposed to achieve. The
political atmosphere will really have to be rotten before the US tries
rattling sabers on China. No chance of that happening any time
soon.

2. The US cannot threaten China with nuclear weapons. Say the worst
case scenario does happen and there is a nuclear exchange. Both
countries will be damaged severely. The consequence will be the world
will be really freaked out. The unintended consequence is that Russia
remains intact and has a huge nuclear arsenal. She can now call all
the shots and gets to dictate to the world. With Russia as the
world's hagemon there is no one who will be able to challenge her
leadership for a long long time.

As the strategic balance of power now stands China is secure against
being invaded or have to fight a war inside China against a foreign
force. All of China's neighbors are significantly weaker and do not
pose a threat. None will be foolish enough to allow the US to form a
military alliance with them to confront China. Russia is in strategic
balance with China. Russia's population is too small and she shares a
long land border with China. China has no cause to invade Russia as
Russian lands are thinly populated for a good reason. They are
unsuitable for agriculture., landlocked and too cold most of the year
to be economically viable.

China's competitive strategy will therefore remain what she is doing
today. This is to prosper through manufacturing and through trade.
This is what the US and the rest of the world has to compete against.
The US and the rest of the world may fear China's rise enough to gang
up against her. That's something China will have to deal with but it
won't be a shooting war. China will continue developing her defense
capabilities. This is to maintain a credible deterrence against an
outside power, aka the US since only the US harbours ambitions for
military dominance. The costs and effort to maintain defense is a lot
easier and cheaper on national resources. The US won't be able to
spur China into a ruinous arms race and bankrupt her.


China is a long way from militarily being able to threaten the U.S. a nuke
exchamnge would be bad for the U.S. annhiliation for china.
also the spirit of Tianemen Sq is lurking just below the surface, bodies
start coming home, only son bodies at that and its curtins for the Party.