It also means that over a 40 year soaring career your probability of
being in a fatal accident is around 1 in 50, or 2% - assuming you fly
the average annual amount of hours over the entire period.

9B




No, it doesn't. The risk isn't cumulative, it's 1:2,000 each year you fly.

I can guarantee that if you have a fatal accident in year 1, your risk
of repeating it in years 2-40 is 0%.

Bear in mind also that more than 3/4 of fatal accidents seem to have
causes within the pilot's own control so that, if you flew perfectly all
the time, you could reduce that risk to more like 1:8,000.

My philosophy is that 1:2,000 is acceptable, and that I will work to get
it nearer 1:8,000. Still more dangerous than autos per hour, but worth it.