On Sep 12, 8:38*am, a wrote:
On Sep 12, 7:26*am, Mark wrote:
On Sep 12, 12:54*am, Jim Logajan wrote:
I was pretty sure that I'd seen somewhere that the price of typical
general aviation airplanes were, relative to median annual income, about
the same ratio as they had always been. I'm still not sure whether that
is true, but according to GAMA, another number, the historical price of
4 seat entry level airplanes (among others) has risen faster than the
cost of inflation, houses, or autos.
Pages 11 to 19 of this GAMA document are of particular note:
http://www.faa.gov/news/conferences_...onference_mate....
The document appears to be PDF coversion of a PowerPoint presentation,
so is missing explanations and references.
In 1971, the average family income was $9,870. [1]
The 1971 Cessna sold for USD$13,425 in the 172 version and USD$14,995
in the Skyhawk version.[2}
In 2010 the average family income was $46,242 [3]
A new 2010 Cessna Skyhawk costs about $297,000 [4]
THEREFORE...
In 1971 you'd pay 1.51 times the average annual salary
to get a new Cessna Skyhawk.
In 2010 you will pay 6.42 times your average annual
salary to get a new Cessna Skyhawk.
Any Questions??
---
Mark
1.http://tvnews.vanderbilt.edu/program.pl?ID=457822
2. wikipedia
3. U.S. census bureau
4.http://answers.yahoo.com/question/in...4203648AAeYJkd
This is one way to do the analysis: what is being overlooked is income
distribution among households. A person on the business side of
general aviation would not give a damn about the 'average' household
but would want to know how many people constitute his market.
You would need an average income of everyone who actually purchased
a plane in 1971. That was the actual market, then do the same for
today and ratio those against their respective purchase prices. That
that would be 100% accurate. However, anyone who talks with an
old-timer doesn't need that data to see what's happened. Planes
cost more than they used to. (dollar per dollar)
There
are more relatively poor single family units than there were in the
70s.
Very much so, and the upper 3% of society averaged against
the other 97% give a distorted picture. In reality there are
millions and millions of people making less than 20K/year.
None of them can buy an airplane today.
In the 70s the US had, I think, a more robust middle class, and
general aviation in some form was within reach of what might have been
called the 'upper middle' class. Never the less, your ratios do tell a
worthwhile story.
Well...it's the "Walmart syndrome". They are the world's largest
importer of Chinese goods. This was the beginning of manufacturing
going overseas. Then, remember Ross Perot and NAFTA?
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/...s_perot_right/
The trading borders fell, and contributed to the problem. And
finally our own government, through taxation, punishes American
companies for trying to make a profit. Ergo...manufacturing goes
overseas and middle-class begins the big shrink. Now the aviation
market has an elite customer base of the upper eschelon, and is
most profitable by selling fewer planes at a higher price.
cut
... but the
consensus among us older pilots at least is that general aviation's
best days were 20 or 30 years ago, and we would not expect much of a
return on money invested in this market segment.
I said that a resurgence in GA is underway, and I maintain that
position. This opinion isn't based on U.S. sales and fleet numbers,
but on observations in the global arena. The number of new pilots
in countries such as Iran and South America are very much on the
upswing and should the global financial environment change for
the better we in U.S. aviation are bound to benefit.
Safe money today is in the LSA market, barring an outright
depression. (imho).
---
Mark