On Fri, 13 Feb 2004 15:58:48 -0500, "Kevin Brooks"
wrote:


"phil hunt" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 13 Feb 2004 09:55:27 -0500, Kevin Brooks
wrote:


Not necessarily. The number that has been bandied about (180) would allow
around six squadrons to be fielded, along with with attrition, training,
and
test aircraft. That would, given the likely air-to-air threats we can
currently envision, be sufficient to ensure our ability to apply airpower
in
any likely required scenarios, withthe F-35 bulking up the force. We have
managed to do quite well with only one wing of F-117's for a number of
years
now.

How many aircraft do you have now (F15/F16) Your present rate of
replacement will not be 1 to 1 at the price thats being quoted..

The idea was that the f-22 was the silver bullet force that would
make up for t he JSF's shortcomings.

The JSF was to have used off board sensors to fulfill its missions.

But the cuts to the F-22 buy and pressure from the non US partner in
the JSF mean its capability has grown to start encroaching on the
F-22.

This is where the US has to be very careful, If the JSF get to
look too good then the F-22 dies a death.

If the JSF isn't made to be a pretty good autonomous fighter (read
as 'the JSF must have a sensor suite that's as good as the present
F15's') then the Partner nations won't be very happy (Note how the
Netherlands are keeping in with the Typhoon program), and may shop
elsewhere.

The nasty part of this is then the price of the JSF skyrockets!!
(it started out at around $25M USD), you'll find it will be well over
double that now, and possible treble come production time.

Which means the USA will not have an 'F16' replacement ie a Light
Weight Fighter in the $30-40M USD bracket.

So what's it to be??? cut the number of wings, cut the number of
aircraft in a wing, to make it look like there are no cuts while
cutting the number of aircraft to be purchased or the very slight
chance of doubling/trebling the amount spent of fighter
procurement in the next decade or two.

Some thing has to give - I still think the F-22 is vulnerable.
I just cannot imaging the present fiscal bloat continuing.

Cheers






I have difficulty imagining a threat that could not be dealt with by
several thousand F-35s (plus no doubt large numbers of legacy
F/A-18s, F-16s, etc), but which could be dealt with by an extra 180
F-22s.

Firstly, I think you are exaggerating the F-35 situation a bit--the total US
buy is a bit over two thousand over the lifetime of the rpogram, IIRC (the
Navy has already reduced the number of aircraft to be procured). Secondly,
the F-22 in those numbers mentioned can indeed still serve a vital role,
namely as a "silver bullet" asset in case we run into an opponent who *can*,
however unlikey that may be right now, field a truly advanced fighter that
could challenge the capabilities of the legacy aircraft. Dumping the F-22
entirely at this point would seem to be a big waste with no capability to
dominate any foe that might be able to realistically challenge us in the
foreseeable future; OTOH, building the currently desired USAF quantity
(around 400 plus, IIRC, with the funding currently capped for 339), when the
USAF has other requirements that appear to be even more vital in the
environment we now face, and that which we are likely to face during the
coming years, seems to me to be a bit of overkill.

Brooks


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