Kevin Brooks wrote:

"Guy Alcala" wrote in message
. ..
Kevin Brooks wrote:

snip

I think we'll see an off-the-shelf purchase of a
new LUH; the possibility of a Bell 412 in military colors is not
unrealistic
(and probably more likely than the Huey II refurbishment program),
destined
for primarily ARNG service. The OH-58C's currently in use by ARNG
outfits
that have lost their Cobras and/or Hueys can't last long.

BTW, here's the actual DoD transcript with the announcement and the
details of
where the money's going.:

http://www.defenselink.mil/transcrip...0223-0484.html

Doesn't a Huey, especially a 412, seem rather much for replacing OH-58Cs?

But if you reread the article you provided, you'll note the requirement is
to replace the 58's *and* the Hueys. The 58C's are currently serving in
three major roles in the ARNG--as cav scouts in the divisional cav
squadrons, as observation aircraft (equipped with FLIR) in the RAID
detachments (drug interdiction and homeland security), and as "caretaker"
airframes for the AH-1 inits and Huey units that have already lost their
aircraft. The 412 would not be ideal in the cav scout role, but that is only
16 aircraft per ARNG division (figuring an eventual force of no more than
six ARNG divisions, you are talking about less than 100 aircraft, and likely
less if the Guard drops down to the four division level). It would be an
excellent replacement for the Huey, especially in regards to the homeland
defense mission. The article noted a total requirement of some 300 airframes
to replace the older Kiowas and the remaining Hueys in the ARNG, and I would
not rule the 412 out as a competitor.

From my reading of the transcript, it seems pretty clear that they're getting
rid of the Hueys entirely (did you see the slides?), replacing them with UH-60s,
and putting a new OH out for bid.

Militarized Bell 407s or 430s ("Son of AirHawk!") I could see, or
something
similar (hey, Howard Hughes is still dead, so maybe we could buy more
OH/AH-6s
at a reasonable price). Or at a step up in size, AB-139s. Smaller than a
Huey,
but larger than a Loach, and should be a lot less maintenance-intensive.
If
you're going to buy new 4 blade Hueys you might as well just buy more
UH-60s and
have done with it (which is apparently what is being done, along with
CH-47Fs,
UAVs etc.)

As you note, they are indeed buying more Blackhawks. But Blackhawks are
pretty pricey compared to the 412. With the increased emphasis on homeland
defense and the Guard's role in that respect, taking X amount of money and
buying more 412's than you could buy UH-60's with the same money would
appear to be a doable solution to me. I doubt the Army wants to blow any
more money than it has to on aircraft that it can't, or would prefer not to,
integrate into its warfighting plans across the board; if you bought only
UH-60's, then the tendancy would be to identify them with contingency plan
force development requirements. They'd be a bit less likely to want to
integrate a low density platform like the 412 would be. But hey, its
early--who knows?

At least how I understand it, they're not willing to do that, and want the Guard
to be seamlessly able to integrate with the active component, which means
they've pretty much got to have the same equipment. While a 412 probably costs
less per hour to operate than a -60, when you add in the costs of the separate
training, maintenance and spares support I suspect it just doesn't make sense
economically. Otherwise the USMC could have just bought UH-60s and modified
AH-64s instead of staying all common with the UH-1Y/AH-1Z.

I did find the bit about replacing the C-23's of interest. The way they
phrased that (wanting a more capable aircraft), I'd bet that the folks at
LMCO and Alenia (IIRC that is the right firm) can expect a likely C-27J
order in the not-too-distant future. The Guard folks have been squeaking
about just that possibility for a year or two now already.

Yeah, that was my reading too. They may compete it with the CN-295, but I
figure the odds of that winning are right up there with Congress agreeing to buy
Airbus tankers. Of course, if the CN-295 were to have American engines and
avionics and be assembled here, it would be pretty similar to the C-27J as far
as American content goes. But it's nice to see the Army get back the
intra-theater tactical lift they lost when the AF took the Caribous. It
certainly makes far more sense that the Army operate these than the USAF. Of
course, with the exception of supporting A-10 (and potentially F-35B) operations
from FOB, the USAF has little or no need of the rough-field STOL capability of
the C-130 to support their own intra-theater missions --they're all support for
Army (or occasionally Marine) ops.

Guy