Tom,

Friday 07/06 looks like trigger should occur early like you estimated...around 10am on ridges (BUFR sounding for China Lake shows 7500agl by 10am). Dry airmass promoting Few to isolated cu cloud bases 16,500 back in Sierras and 18-19K msl N and E Owens Valley. There may be some shallow high based CB in the usual "hot spots" and high terrain north of Bishop, but no thunderstorm convection of significance.

Pretty good day Friday, but the trend is a little better each day Saturday through Monday as surface max temps rise 1-2deg per day... and warm core high slides westward. Thursday it was over Mo/Iowa but by Sun/Mon will be centered on UT/NV. The light easterly mid level flow around bottom of high that usually bring monsoon moisture... will continue to remain quite dry.

So.. yes. 1000km + triangles and zig-zags looks good for this period continuing into mid next week.

Walt Rogers, WX

On 7/5/2012 6:14 PM, Tom Serkowski wrote: Walt,
Does today fit your pattern?

Good cu on the Sierras before 1100, so likely a 1000 start was possible. Satellite images still look good and there's still strong looking cu on the sierras and E, NE from here.

-Tom

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Tom Serkowski
http://serkowski.com/