http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/news/8197864.htm
Noting that development costs have increased by 127 percent over 1986
estimates, GAO officials called on the Department of Defense to
"complete a new business case that determines the continued need for
the F/A-22." The White House Office of Management and Budget has made
a similar request to determine if the F/A-22 is "still relevant."

I don't see how they can be relevant.

There's only two countries with advanced aircraft who might be involved
in a conflict with the United States and so justify the cost of the F/A-22s.

Russia would be suicidal to take on an enlarged NATO so that leaves China.

China might move for a limited "internal affairs" war by attacking
Taiwan and discover after the fact that the US really does care.

So in say 2012, China's missile bombardment has destroyed all the
airbases in Taiwan and the only thing keeping them from moving in is a
CAP of Super Hornets over the island.

In this scenario the F/A-22s wouldn't be very useful because they would
be operating very far from their bases and even with air to air
refueling they still can't be rearmed without returning to base,
especially if they can't get any permission slips from the other
countries in the area.

So can anybody come up with anything more probable where the F/A-22s are
even a tiny bit relevant?

-HJC