In article , "W. D. Allen Sr."
wrote:

[snip comment about Israel and 1991.]

Let me preface this by saying that I dearly hope you are right and I am
wrong about how some of the events came about, but I have difficulty
justifying some of the points below on the basis of Iraq alone. Don't
get me wrong -- I think it was necessary to go into Afghanistan quickly,
and I object more to the timing, preparation and expectations of the
Iraqi invasion rather than doing it at all.


The results have been:
1. Pakistan is now an ally in fighting terrorism,

I would associate this much more with Afghanistan, which, of course, is
Pakistan's neighbor and the jihadist groups going back and forth across
the Afghan border from the essentially lawless Pakistani Federally
Administered Tribal Areas.

Assassination attempts on Pakistani leader Musharraf, possibly having
some support from out-of-control Inter-Service Intelligence, which may,
in turn, cooperate with jihadists. There are at least five major groups
in the FATA, only one of which is the Taliban.

2. Libya has stopped developing nuclear weapons,

This is the culmination of a long program. Remember that Gaddafi has had
direct attacks on his country. Again, the Afghan model probably fits the
geography and low population density of Libya better than does the Iraqi
model.

3. Afghanistan is now free of the Taliban,

Clear win.

4. Every country in the Middle East now fears being next on our Axis of
Evil list,

Here, I'm not that sure. Assuming some of those countries have mildly
competent intelligence officers, they can look at the level of
commitment (present and future undefined) and ask "with what troops will
they invade us?"

5. Osama's effective authority over terrorism now extends only within
the
cave he is currently hiding,

Unclear.

6. The butcher of Baghdad, now in prison, will soon be tried by the
people
he tormented,

True.

7. Iran, the major sponsor of current terrorism, is now squeezed by a
free
Afghanistan on one side and a free Iraq on the other,

I'm not sure I would say "the" major, but I do agree that Iran is being
pressured. I am less clear how much of that is from Iraq. In fact,
there's much more shared culture between Afghanistan and Iran, and the
Iranians have been doing some apparently legitimate assistance there.
It's possible that the opening to Iran may very well come from
Afghanistan, where one of the major languages (Dari) is a dialect of
Farsi. Neither side are Arabs.

8. The world's terrorists, now clustered in Iraq and not in the USA, are
being continually decimated

I would like to think this is the case, but I really don't know.

9. And, we have had no terrorist attacks whatsoever on American soil in
the
last three years!

I hope I am wrong when I say that luck and counterterrorism here, rather
than Iraq, is responsible. Clearing Afghanistan has a much more clear
cause and effect.


It's been a very successful campaign thus far! Only a liberal wimp would
believe otherwise.

I don't think the opposition breaks into useful distinctions of liberal
versus conservative. I thoroughly support the Afghan operations, but
have serious doubts of the readiness, planning and urgency with respect
to Iraq.


He still believes the situation is salvageable if the United States can
communicate more effectively with the Iraqi people and demonstrate a
better
image to them.

The enlistment of the U.N. and other countries to participate in the
mission is
also crucial, he says. Without these things, says Zinni, "We are going
to
be
looking for quick exits. I don't believe we're there now, and I
wouldn't
want
to see us fail here."

The reality is that the Administration has not gotten US consensus of
essentially an open-ended nation-building process.


Also central to success in Iraq is more troops, from the United States
and
especially other countries, to control violence and patrol borders, he
says.

Zinni feels that undertaking the war with the minimum of troops paved
the
way
for the security problems the U.S. faces there now, the violence
Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld recently admitted he hadn't anticipated.


I would agree.