On Saturday, January 18, 2014 9:55:20 AM UTC-8, son_of_flubber wrote:
On Friday, January 17, 2014 10:38:48 PM UTC-5, Frank Whiteley wrote:

1/1800 just kind of looks about right given what we know about the pilot population.



Thanks for this well-considered number, it completes the picture. To relate it back to the context of my original point...



1/1800 equates to a .18% chance of glider related fatality in each year of flying. Over ten years that would be .18 X 10 = 1.8% cumulative risk over 10 years (say 2%).



Side by side with my original mortality prognosis (individual based on my age and health status):



I have a 19% chance of dieing from all other causes in the next ten years.



I have a 2% chance of dieing in a glider in the next 10 years.



Say a 10:1 chance of dying of natural causes before I die in a glider. I'm good with that, but I will keep looking for ways to improve my odds.

I agree with your math for us old geezers, but if you run the numbers for a 20 years old for their risk of dying in a glider vs natural cause? I bet the results will not be too encouraging...

Ramy