On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 12:47:35 PM UTC-5, Dan Marotta wrote:
How long ago did Newsome make that claim?Â* What's the current count?Â*
What's a reasonable projection for the stated 7 weeks?
Dan, 5J

From Newsom's letter to Trump dated March 18: "We project that roughly 56% of our population - 25.5 million people - will be infected with the virus over an 8 week period." Note that the gov uses the term "will be" not "could/might be". https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/up...pital-Ship.pdf

And at approx 3% mortality (today, the death rate is more like 1.5%), that equates to 765,000 deaths in California. Expanded to the entire US; 5,544,000 deaths.

To answer your other questions, particularly on the use of more reasonable models (no citations from bloggers): https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...owns-and-other

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/u...-estimate.html

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/artic...p-15144169.php

https://www.france24.com/en/20200320...o-stay-at-home