On 2007-03-10, Jay Honeck wrote:
Prog charts show a big chunk of (argh!) thunderstorms moving into
Oklahoma and Texas on Sunday morning...

In my experience of (around 800 or 900 hours of) flying around Texas -
prog charts showing possible thunderstorms are not necessarily doom to a
trip.

My usual strategy was to look again at the radar just before departure,
and pick a point where I could stop and re-check the radar to see how it
was progressing. Around 70% of the time, the entire trip was a 'go'
because the thunderstorms turned out to be very widely scattered.

It also depends what the thunderstorms were associated with.
Thunderstorms embedded in a front, with low IMC? I'm not going to even
bother going to the airport. But basically reasonable VMC conditions,
and an area of widely scattered storms? Flight watch, and a stop at a
nearby airport to get a full update on the weather would usually prove
useful. About half the time, thunderstorms in the prog charts wouldn't
even materialise on the day of the trip and it was obvious from just
looking out of the window or calling Flight Watch that there was no need
to stop.

Of course, it's wise to exercise caution if you've no experience flying
in the area (because you don't get that gut feel whether they are
airplane-eating monsters or easily avoidable airmass storms), and the
usual advice to have an 'out' is something that can't be ignored.

But isn't it funny that on the day of a trip, all this weather always
seems to show up? I've done the Houston to Pinckneyville trip about half
a dozen times, and I can predict years in advance that there will be a
cold front lined up such that it lies right over the middle of Arkansas
on the Friday afternoon just when I'm passing. It's _always_ there on
that particular Friday, like a big cosmic meterological taunt!

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