On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 2:51:26 am UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Paul B wrote on 2/22/2021 7:28 PM:
On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 11:10:09 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Paul B wrote on 2/20/2021 9:18 PM:
"About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million people (the number vaccinated so
far), primarily over 65 and a large number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few
that die within a few days or weeks of the vaccination."

Fully agree, however the same logic was not applied to covid-19, I wonder why?

Cheers

Paul



On Sunday, 21 February 2021 at 2:50:15 pm UTC+10, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Gregg Ballou wrote on 2/19/2021 5:30 AM:
The Vaers data is out there for those that care to look beyond the fake news.
"We all know that the rooster crows before the dawn, but we don’t think the rooster makes the
sun come up, simply because they are related in time".

About 8000 people die every day. In a population of 56 million people (the number vaccinated so
far), primarily over 65 and a large number that have comorbidities, there will be quite a few
that die within a few days or weeks of the vaccination.

Don't blame the rooster for the sunrise - get vaccinated so we can continue to argue about
purity and motorgliders :^)
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "logic was not applied to Covid-19". But, Covid caused so
many deaths, it altered the normal death rate enough to be be noticed; ie, "excess deaths",
especially in the retirement and nursing homes in the beginning. People that believe normal
deaths are being misreported as Covid cases are ignoring these excess deaths, and also the fact
that hospitals are being overwhelmed by Covid deaths, not the usual causes.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1

I am not disputing that the fact Covid-19 may caused death of some and hasten an impeding death of others.

My point was simply that different criteria are being used when when ascribing causality. As an example, if someone dies at 90 and may have had covid-19, it is counted as a covid-19 death without qualification. If the same person died following an Covid-19 injection, suddenly, the age and potential comorbidities are taken into account.
I am not an antivaxxer I have had all the shots, as did my children. I even partake in the flu shot. However none of these vaccines were developed at this speed and had so little testing. You simply cannot do a multi year longitudinal study in ten months. So clearly in terms of testing, corners were cut.

You mention the excess deaths, and I am looking at these numbers also, as I feel that those numbers should be least able to be manipulated. However the picture is not that clear. For one, it will probably be a number of years before the true numbers are in and potentially longer to examine the exces deaths that happened in subsequent years because of the reaction to covid-19, not because of it.

Finally, the immediate projection of excess death from the CDC website is also problematic. The US had a near linear increase in the number of deaths per 1000 over the last 5 years. Yet the CDC chose to average the the number of deaths over the last 5 years and then add some 100000 to that number for "slow reporting". If they chose to extrapolate the likely deaths, you would have an entirely different numbers of excess death. The results and methodology is on CDC website.
I do not see the death determination being so different. Here in Washington State, death
attribution to Covid-19 requires a positive test and symptoms, and the reports include
information on comorbidities. My understanding is even more care is used to determine the cause
of deaths following vaccination, but even if you attribute all of them to the vaccine, it is
still a much smaller rate than deaths from infection.

The excess deaths are so great, we are not faced with teasing out a weak signal from a noisy
data set. There are times the excess deaths exceeded 30%! We can discuss the best way to
determine what the "normal" death rate should be, but that is a refinement that doesn't change
the big pictu people are dying at a high rate from Covid-19, and not from vaccinations.

This article shows how the excess deaths for the US are easily seen the in the data, as of
2/17/2021:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...eath-toll.html
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1
I am in complete agreement that total deaths will remove distractions of cause from the discussion.
However excess deaths have a problem with "excess to what". The CDC methodology published here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm
States that they have averaged the last 5 years of weekly data to get the base. However, if you look at the death rates for those years you will see almost a perfectly linear increase year on year. So extrapolation may have been a better way to get to the true expected base. That would reduce the excess deaths by some 100000.
Anyway, I liked the the graph for NY, from the NYT. Kill them of early and have an easy time from then on