On Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 10:20:43 AM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
I'm expecting my GP15 to be at least a month delayed.

Huh? Say WHAT? When was delivery originally promised to you?

The following applies regardless of whether one discusses GP or other vendors.
I really do wish GP the best, might even have ordered one except I already
have too many electric-powered gliders (maybe someday I'll get it flying again,
after most recent failure in March, after repairing prior failure last fall).
Anyway...

Eric, you were an engineer, right?
When I was just a baby engineer (IIRC 1973, working in Brussels),
my boss taught me about the projected-delay curve.
Presumably you were similarly taught?

A projected-delay curve is very simple.
Y-axis is projected delay (say, expected months to completion).
X-axis is just time (say in months).
A perfectly planned project gives a line descending at 45 degrees,
so that the projected delay reaches 0 (completion) at the time originally planned.

As an engineer, I would do projected delay curves on:
- time promised til first promised customer delivery
- time promised til my delivery

Eric, you've had some training and exposure to finance, no??
So, calculate or estimate to 10%-20%:
- amount of cash taken in by company from deposits
- cost (break-even) to pay for fabrication of a glider
Now ask or find out from public financial records their approximate cash-on-hand.
Does it permit producing prepaid orders?

Eric, you were an engineer, right?
So you know things go wrong. 'cause, ya-know, "How hard can it be?" precedes...
Now, given that things go wrong, as engineers we plan for that right?
That means designing in adequate diagnostic basic indicators (blinky LEDs)
and logs, easily accessible by the customer.
Applies to all kinds of products, right?
When first Antares showed up and the logs weren't accessible,
I added a feature so customer could easily pull logs onto USB stick.
At least the logs already EXISTED, but the factory failed to make this easy.
Now, how come its not immediately determined what happened to the first GP delivery?

Again, I wish GP all the best.
But when one asks these questions, its a serious thing.
I saw first-hand when I did the OSTIV talk, pilots looking annoyed,
and not raising their hands when I asked how many had a particular problem,
when I could see many in the audience I knew had had the problem.
Guys, I'm not calling your wife ugly.
Heaven forbid, I'm not even calling your girlfriend ugly!
Brand-loyalty is one thing, but this is a bit silly.

Eric, would you care to do the above analysis and share it?
Its a serious question and NOT an attack.
Thanks,
Best Regards, Dave

PS: Tell Jan I think she's cute ;-)


* The projected-delay curve has been approximately re-invented numerous
times with trendy names like "burn-down chart"...
** Typical decently-managed projects show projected-delay curves with
more-or-less constant slope worse than 45 degrees. That tells you the
estimation process is consistently flawed by the same degree, but things
are NOT wildly out of control.
**B) Some decades ago, a buddy was working at a large aerospace co on
a large DARPA/NASA funded project. He complained to me about unrealistic
estimates, and I explained above. He then posted and regularly updated a
projected-delay graph outside his cubicle, for each major milestone,
all showing a rather depressing but flat curve. Senior management got wind
and dressed him down and demanded he remove it! Big Offense!!!
Right before project was cancelled for repeated budget overruns.
*** When projected-delay line flattens or increases, you are truly F'd.