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  #106  
Old April 30th 05, 03:13 AM
Steven P. McNicoll
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"George Patterson" wrote in message
news:0nBce.505$yd1.85@trndny01...

No, he would have been well offshore. The lake is about 80 nm wide at that
point, and that's if you're traveling straight across. The news said he
would have been swimming against a 3 knot headwind, so he was fighting
higher winds at altitude. Unless his Archer could true at least 175 knots,
he was over water 30 minutes earlier.


You might want to run that problem again. On a direct route from Hamilton
NY to Watertown WI the lake is about 68 nm wide, not 80. According to the
NTSB he went down six miles east of the lakeshore, so the dry tanks point
was a few miles further east and dependant on altitude. He probably crossed
about 55-60 miles of the lake. The book cruise speed of the Archer II is
139 ktas but he was probably achieving something a bit less than that. The
winds at altitude are also unknown. He may have been over water 30 minutes
prior to engine stoppage, but he was certainly not well offshore.