Comments in no particular order:
1) From my readings I gained the information that the Japanese Army
wanted to go south (ie, not fight the Russians) and the Japanese navy
wanted to go north (ie, not fight the US and the UK.) The Army won.
(ASIR the minister of war was army.)
2) The 30-40 (ISTR?) Russian Army divisions facing the Japanese in
Siberia/Mongolia were released to the Western front after Sorge
informed the Stavka the Japanese were not going to attack Russia. This
really turned the tide after the attack on Moscow had failed and fresh
winter-hardened SovArmy troops attacked.
3) As I recall Yamamoto had said (more or less) "I can run wild for
six months - after that I can give no guarantee." His experience in
the US included a large amount of travel including the Texas oil
fields and the various manufacturing plants.
4) Had Hitler not begun exterminating the Ukrainians the Soviet Army
would have had a much tougher time. As it was the behind-the-lines
forces, regular and guerrilla, gave the road-bound German supply lines
fits. With the Ukrainian populace with him, as they were at the very
first few days, that wouldn't have been nearly so severe a problem.
The country 'ocean' would have been 'anti-fish', to paraphrase Mao.
Walt BJ
Walt BJ