On 27/03/2014 21:12, Daryl wrote:
On 3/27/2014 3:32 AM, Keith Willshaw wrote:
On 26/03/2014 23:51, Daryl wrote:
On 3/26/2014 4:19 PM, Keith Willshaw wrote:
On 26/03/2014 20:23, Daryl wrote:
On 3/26/2014 1:15 PM, george152 wrote:
On 27/03/14 07:21, Keith Willshaw wrote:

Especially given that the average depth of water in that area is
around
4 km. Finding it will require a towed array.

Keith

First find the debris field.
Then work your way back to begin scanning the ocean floor.
It'll take time and surface ships.
Nukes have other duties than looking for downed aircraft

The debris will have floated for about 100 miles riding the
currents. No
help from that.


As it happens you do get some help from that. The winds and currents
can
be used to estimate the position of the crash. That technique was used
to find the remains of Air France 447. They combed the likely area
using
a towed sidescan sonor until they found the submerged debris field.

Keith

How deep was the area that 447 went down in.

More than 4,000 metres, it was the South Atlantic


This one went down in one
of the deepest oceans. You pretty well have t be right on top of it to
pick up anything. And it has to be done fast before the battery runs
down on the black box. Once the battery is gone, it will never be
located unless some Scifi things creap up. Now I know that the Seaview
could probably find it.


They found AF-447 in similar water depths AFTER the battery had run out.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26680633

However it will certainly be harder than for AF-447 if for no other
reason than the location being so remote and if the debris is in a
topologically complex area such as a ravine they may never find it.

Keith


AF-447 is a red herring. For the most recent, the depth in KMs in that
area is over 7000 or 23,000 feet or almost 5000 feet.

This makes no sense at all.

The deepest point in the Indian Ocean is 8047 m or around 25,000 ft
the average depth is around 3890 metres or 13,000 ft which as it happens
is approx the depth of water that AF-447 lay in.


That's average
depth. As you stated, add in the mountainous nature it gets even more
difficult. Now, add in that pieces falling off on the way down will go
through many different thermals and water direction and using those
pieces that float will be worthless since it may have gone through many
directional water streams on it's way to the surface.

Yes, it's not impossible that they can find it. But it's highly
improbable when cost is considered. How many millions of dollars will
be spent each day until it becomes no longer financially viable. I
think they are going to hit that limit in the next few days.


Given that there is intense interest in China , Malaysia and amongst
operators of the 777 I doubt people are going to lose interest that
quickly. The search for AF-447 started in June 2009 and the wreckage was
finally found in April 2011. Its probable that the first phase will end
in the next few weeks if for no other reason that winter in the southern
ocean is fast approaching. However I would expect a similar phase II
search involving oceanographic reserach vessels to commence in the pring
or summer.

Keith