(Andrew Sarangan) wrote
The accident rate is about 7 per 100,000 hours flown, and the fatal
accident rate is about 1.3 per 100,000 hours flown. Remember that
these are averages, and it includes high risk activities such as low
level maneuvering, scud running and fuel exhaustion.

It also includes low risk activities such as flight training and going
around the patch to practice landings on nice VFR days. Further,
don't forget that this statistic includes business flying, which is
lower risk than personal flying.

My guess is, for
a conservative pilot with an instrument rating, the rate is likely to
be about half of the above numbers.

I do not believe this is realistic. I also do not believe there is
any data indicating that instrument rated private pilots are any safer
than those not rated.

A typical private pilot flies about 100 hours per year.

Really? A typical private airplane flies 26 hours a year, and owners
typically fly more than renters. I know relatively few private pilots
- all of them owners - who fly 100 hours a year or more.

At that rate, it would be 300 years before
he would encounter an accident, or 1500 years for a fatal accident.

A more realistic way of looking at it - the likelihood of surviving a
year of private flying is about 99.9%.

Michael