Here's a thought experiment. It's based on having read the NTSB report for every single accident and fatal accident in soaring over several decades.

Presume that the desired action here is for the FAA to ground towplanes with Schweizer hooks until such time as they are replaced. Further presume that the process will take from weeks to forever - for some towplanes where it is either cost prohibitive or where there is no FAA-approved solution.

If some portion of those grounded towplanes restrict the ability of clubs or commercial operators to launch gliders for anywhere from weeks to forever, then it stands to reason, based on the relative probability of a fatality due to kiting versus the probability of a fatality flying gliders generally, that the most significant live-saving impact of this action would be from simply stopping glider pilots from flying gliders.

I'm not saying if that's a good thing or a bad thing overall. Saving lives is a good thing. It's just a question of what the cost is to get there and whether the view is worth the climb.

Feel free to make assertions about the probabilities. People generally are terrible at estimating the probabilities of rare events. They tend to elevate the probabilities of the risks they think they can control and underestimate the probabilities of the risks they can't control. It leads to the illusion of control - which is comforting.

Andy Blackburn
9B