"Roy Smith" wrote in message
...
Roy Smith wrote:
We just don't know enough about icing to be sure when or where it's
going to occur.

"Matthew S. Whiting" wrote:
We don't know enough to know where it is likely to occur as you say.

That's not quite what I said. You dropped the word "sure" and added the
word "likely", which changes the meaning significantly. We do know
enough to forecast where it's *likely*, we just don't know enough to
forecast where it is *certain* to happen.

but the FAA will play it very conservative and forecast
anywhere that there is the slightest possibility of icing.

Actually, I believe it's the National Weather Service, not the FAA, who
issues icing forecasts.

This greatly
reduces the operational flexibility of many types of aircraft during
many parts of the country for a good portion of the year. I think it is
much better to let the pilot take a look and retreat if necessary.

Well, you would say that it's the law that limits the operational
flexibility. I would say it's not so much the law as the threat of
icing itself. It's the old physics vs. legislation issue. You can pass
any law you want, but you can't repeal gravity.

The libertarian in me wants to agree with you to a certain extent; as
long as you're not for hire, and not carrying pax, and can assure you
won't hurt anybody on the ground when you crash down on them, I don't
see any reason why you shouldn't be allowed to take a chance and see
what happens.


I agree with Roy here, I would like everybody to be permitted to evaluate
and take risks as they see fit but there is the issue of people on the
ground.

On the issue of icing forecasts, my experience (mostly western US), is that
there is almost always ice when it is forecast.. I can not think of a
single flight where icing was forecast and there was no icing. It may not
be forming every second at every altitude but if you fly 100nm in cloud and
icing is forecast then you will find ice. There are also a lot a senarios
where you will find icing below -20C in the West so the whole notion of
"climbing above the ice is a falicy around here (unless you have a jet).
I'm sure that there are places where it is possible to climb above the ice
in a prop driven airplane on a consistant basis but not around here.

Mike
MU-2