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Old June 22nd 19, 04:11 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Tango Eight
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Default New Video - Oudie Weather & SeeYou Maps

On Monday, June 17, 2019 at 9:14:04 AM UTC-4, wrote:
On Monday, 17 June 2019 13:51:31 UTC+2, Tango Eight wrote:
On Monday, June 17, 2019 at 7:24:38 AM UTC-4, waremark wrote:
Does use of Skysight on an Oudie use up one of the three devices my Skysight sub entities me to use it on? (I want it on phone tablet and pc.)


You seem interested in this. So let me ask: what's the value here? I honestly don't understand why anyone wants hours old forecasts in the cockpit.

T8


Just to clarify - the forecast data is 'old', but it still cycles through hour-by-hour in the cockpit so you are looking at the prediction for the hour when/where you are. If you have an LX9000, you can benefit from any later updates though.

I'm biased because I wrote it, but;
For wave flying, the wave forecasts are so useful you'll wonder how you did it without it. Don't believe me - ask Dennis Tito or Morgan Sandercock, an OLC comment from on one of their 2000km flights, using SkySight in the cockpit:
“The SkySight forecast is so precise that we did not need to look at clouds to find lift. When the clouds went one way and SkySight went another way we found it was better to follow the SkySight prediction. We literally do not need to look out the window to find lift.
I have flown blue wave personally multiple times with SkySight and it really opened possibilities that were not there before. Predicting wave is quite easy because mountains don't move very fast and mid-to-upper level winds change slowly. The same applies to orographic convergences (i.e. wind splitting and joining behind an obstacle) or along the edge of plateaus/ridges. Overlay some wave flights on the forecast with the IGC Upload to see for yourself.
In highly dynamic or unstable wave conditions (fronts passing through etc) though your mileage may vary as to the placement of the wave hour by hour..


Our experience (VT, NH, ME in USA) with smaller scale terrain is that all of the forecast models do roughly as well as an experienced human looking at a single forecast SkewT as far as predicting the likelihood of useful wave (it's not hard).

All of the map based tools seem to be equally bad at forecasting the location (aside from the really obvious, known reliable places, e.g. Mt Washington), strength and vertical extent of wave.

One of my club mates has made something of a hobby of comparing SkySight wave forecasts to his experience of the day, and it's a very different experience than you relate above. His observation is the same as mine: in flight we have to look out the window, we have to go with our experience, we have to go with our knowledge of terrain. All of our forecasting tools taken together are reliable only for forecasting likelihood of wave, clouds, winds aloft. I don't recall we've ever had a day where one could follow forecast wave lift contours on a map and get a positive result.

We speculate that the current state of the art is predictive for the largest terrain (e.g. NZ, Sierras), but is not adequate for the smaller scale stuff we have.

Perhaps you'd like to plan an extended vacation & study trip in New England? We're all in for better in region forecasting :-).

best regards,
Evan Ludeman