In all this discussion, there is one aspect missing: flying skills or level of practice
The stats imply a more or less linear risk. Meaning that the more you fly the higher is your risk and vice versa, simply because the more hours you do it, the more hours you are exposed to a certain threat.
But I’m convinced that the risk of a low time flying pilot is much higher than the one of a pilot that practices maybe one hundred hours of flying per year. Then, with an increasing amount of hours, the risk may rise up again because the longer exposure to threat outweights the slowly increasing practise.
In other words, I think with low hours the risk is high, with more practise the risk decreases and finally it rises again.
Of course I have no figures and data to proove that, but I think my feeling is not far off the truth.