"Jimbob" wrote in message
...
Hi all.

I'm a current student pilot(PPSEL) and I have been reading up on the
new sport pilot/LSA stuff that has come about.

Welcome!

My interest, like most
potential pilots, is to eventually own an aircraft, but that will be
several years down the road.

Good! That is about the soonest that we will be seeing any new airframes.

When I was deciding to go for my certificate, the one of the things
that I weighed was the cost of aviation. Since the general pool of
pilots has been decreasing for a while, I didn't see much of a
possibility for prices to drop any time in the near future.

I still don't.

Generally, I see the issue as FAA certifications costs. Massive, to
say the least. Couple that with a lack of pilots to purchase
aircraft, preventing manufacturers from spreading those and other
tooling costs over a large volume.

That is only part of the problem. Other problems include the small market
(compared to that for other major manufactured goods) and product liability.

Then I started reading up on the new sport pilot rules. I don't see a
rush of sport pilots in the near future, unless this thing gets pushed
by AOPA/EAA big time. Doubt it.

Is it terrible to say that I do not have a great desire to experience a
glut of new lesser-trained pilots? New airplanes are another matter!

I think they view it as a way to
bring ultralight pilots into the fold.

They will be welcome.

However, this LSA thing
appears to have some serious promise for current private pilots.

I agree 100%
It is also my understanding that the owner could
self maintain after as little as 16 hours of training.

This could have a great effect on flying costs. On the other hand, a owner
who can sign off on his/her own annual would have an opportunity to defer needed
maintenance. This will have a negative effect on both safety and resale value.


With the consensus standards, the initial prices for the airframes
will be much cheaper.

This is yet to be seen.

The homebuilt companies appear to be already
chomping at the bit. I have seen some nice aircraft advertised for
much less than $80K. However, these prices are using FAA certified
engines and instruments. In the future, I would expect consensus
standard powerplants (Honda, perhaps?)

After that big court decision ($96 million, Textron Lycoming) last week do
you really think that Honda would want anything to do with that market?

and instruments. Some of the
nice homebuilt glass panels and FADEC systems may meet ASTM standards
in the near future and they cost a fraction of a G1000.

True. Do you think that they will last for 30 years like today's
instrument panels?


Given this, I'm pretty jazzed about this development. If things go
this way, I would expect sales of LSA's to rocket as current pilots
trade in their older, expensive to maintain A/C for newer, cheaper
ones.

I have been following aviation for the last 40 years. There have always
been hoards of cheap new GA aircraft on the horizon. I remain slightly hopeful,
but am no longer a believer.


The only downside I can see is that the bottom may drop out of the
Cessna 152/172 - Piper 140 market.

As a licensed non-owner pilot, I would not consider that altogether bad.
That said, the value of the 172 will never be impacted by today's LSA rules. If
you want an airplane that can really carry two normal-sized adults and their
luggage to a real place, the 152 is not your answer, and I doubt if any LSA will
be your answer; for that you need, at minimum, a plane in the 172 class. If you
don't believe me, just do a weight and balance on a real 152 (that has likely
gained 20 or 30 pounds since it has left the factory) and assume two 190#
passengers and full tanks.

As another poster noted. a slight change in the LSA ruling could
significantly improve the value of Cessna 15X planes, making flying that much
more expensive for us weekend renters.

Vaughn