On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 at 5:49:22 PM UTC-7, wrote:
For those who haven’t seen it....

https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-o...-what-we-love/

The numbers sound plausible to me. If I take them at face value, I need to personalize them to make any assessment of risk. What I care about is what are the chances of me dying in the next year of doing these things.

For driving, I drive about 10,000 miles/yr. Assuming an average speed of 40mph, that's 250 hrs/yr. So my risk of dying next year behind the wheel is 0.01%

For soaring I fly about 40 hrs/yr. That means my chance of dying behind the stick next year is 0.08%

For down hill mountain biking, I ride maybe 400 miles/yr @ 15mph. That's 27 hrs/yr and makes my chances of dying behind the handle bars 0.08%

Now, for risky activities I try to mitigate the risks as best I can. I will assume I have average skill at all the above activities, but I can still reduce risk through technology. I drive a larger SUV, with lots of air bags, a crumple zone, and I wear a seatbelt. I fly a glider with a safety cockpit, FLARM, ADS-b out, a Spot, an AH, and automatic hook-ups. I ride a bike with a helmet and gloves.

My conclusion is: I need to spend way more time weighing the dangers of mountain biking!!!

Matt