On Sep 10, 9:30*pm, wrote:
Mark wrote:
On Sep 10, 7:53*pm, wrote:
Mark wrote:
On Sep 10, 12:23*pm, wrote:
Mark wrote:
A shrinking market,

Why do you think the market is shrinking? *I think it's
growing.

Then your thinking is clouded.

The market has been shrinking for a couple of decades,
but I believe there is a resurgence of interest at this time.

Your thoughts are not reflected by sales figures.

Yes, and you want to know why? *Because the planes
are overpriced.

No, it is because most people have no interest what so ever in owning an
airplane and in fact a very large number of people are scared of "little"
airplanes.

Yes sales are off. *Interest is still high.

And from what market study did you get that information?

It's a culmulative understanding from multiple sources,
and partially driven by baby boomers who now have
interest in the LSA market.

Mostly because the operating costs are low and you don't need to be able
to pass a medical.

--
Jim Pennino

Remove .spam.sux to reply.

I wrote something about this a while ago, paraphrasing here


I use general aviation a lot, and own a Mooney built 30 some years
ago. I think the
opportunities for general aviation have been going down, as measured
by the size of the fleet, the number of pilots, and hours flown -- all
generally available information -- since about the 70s. Fuel costs
will keep rising, the demand
for oil products is overtaking overtaking supply, increased regulation
will add artificial costs that have to paid for with real dollars, and
the need for physical travel will probably decline with increasing
digital communication. I see this happening now -- decision makers
that I used to visit are happier to take a virtual meeting than a
real one, and the coming generation is better at that kind of
communication than we are.

A for electric airplanes, it's going to be a long time before anything
weighing 6 pounds and occupying 231 cubic inches will hold the amount
of easily controlled energy a gallon of av-gas does.

OK, think like a manager. Do a strategic plan. We start with a SWOT
analysis -- strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Do you
hear of any venture capitalists lining up to invest in general
aviation? It's a weak and declining market, the threats are commercial
aviation and digital communications, virtual travel. The strength for
non hobby SEL is, economic door to door travel time in the 200 to say
700 or 900 mile range is probably faster in an M20J than other
methods. The door to door time means deciding when to travel on your
own schedule, not an airline's. That also means if a business meeting
ends early or late, I can still be wheels up 15 minutes after getting
to the airport, and I can use an outlier airport if it's closer to
where I'm going. And the opportunity? When companies like Mooney and
Cessna and the like, managed by people whose careers depend on being
on top of things, are struggling, there simply isn't much
opportunity.

I'm not going to bother looking it up, but would probably bet the
average in use SEL general aviation airplane is at least 25 years old.
If true that does not say much for the state of the art, does it?

I can hear my grand children, in an oil poor world a couple of decades
from now, saying "Granddad A, you flew your own airplane? Why?"