On Friday, February 16, 2018 at 8:33:47 AM UTC-5, Kiwi User wrote:

The rule of thumb we use for ab initio winch training is that the number
of flights to solo is your age in years plus 30: I was in my early 50s at
the time.

Aerotow experience is a factor. My anecdotal data point.

Age 62, 250 prior aerotows, I soloed on winch after 28 launches spread over six weeks. I'm not a 'natural pilot'. This was a very relaxed pace. I was in no hurry to solo, and there was excess CFI and glider capacity, and so it was an absolutely no pressure situation.

WRT safety. Concerns about winch mechanical quality, instructor expertise, and winch driver expertise are legit and need to be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis. Same deal with the aerotow operations that we normalize.

Winch launching has made me safer on aerotows and overall increased my life expectancy:

1)In case of an aerotow rope break, the trained reflex to push the nose down to recover airspeed before turning carries over from winch to aerotow. I think winch training makes me less likely to spin during the 360 turn off an aerotow rope break. Doing 5-10 'simulated rope breaks' on the winch over a few weeks trains that reflex much better than doing the one 'actual rope break' typical of aerotowing training. Karl S.'s 'zoomie' training exercise (see his description above) might be worthwhile for aerotow training. I'm much more confident about aerotow rope breaks after completing winch training.

2)Winch training is largely about landing from a variety of altitudes, positions and attitudes. It is a great cost effective opportunity to 'tune up' your landing (and outlandings if you winch train at Eagle Field).

3)Winching is FUN. It is part of my recurrent training plan even though I have to travel away from my home area to do it.