On 3/2/04 0:18, in article , "Kevin
Brooks" wrote:


"Woody Beal" wrote in message
SNIP

Shoot, I don't know diddly about actual air tactics beyond what I have read,
so you are light years ahead of me. I have had some experience with the CAS
planning cycle from the groundpounder's perspective, and one of the biggest
gripes we had was the lack of responsiveness and that 72-48-24 hour
timeline. To give the USAF credit where it is due, it sounds like that
situation has improved mightily over the past couple of years.


I know a bit--all from the perspective of Naval Aviation. I know what we
bring to the table.

SNIP

Twin engined aircraft with single engine aircraft? I don't think so. Take
the F-16, which does indeed have a significantly lower accident rate (a bit
under three per 100K hours IIRC). I can see your point, and acknowledge that
the AV-8 is indeed more accident prone than its contemporaries--but that
does noy IMO yield a concrete conclusion versus the F-35B.


Concur that it does not yield a concrete conclusion, but it does yield a
tendency based on several possible single point failures. If lift fan doors
don't open, if lift rotor fails to engage properly, if engine fails during
transition to STOVL life gets tough at a very critical and low altitude
moment. These problems (though not identical) are similar to those
experienced in the AV-8B.

Mechanical failures in the STOVL regime are unforgiving because of their low
altitude locale.


The microcosm I mentioned at China Lake (while certainly anecdotal),
SNIP
those tours during the winter months...). Definitely neanderthal... :-)


Beating up on P-3 guys is a standard Hornet pilot sport. I choose not to
participate--kind of like clubbing baby seals--no sport in it.

SNIP
Time period is important in this discussion as alluded to above because of
safety programs (currency requirements, NATOPS, annual check rides, etc.
that were put into effect).

I have no doubt that those factors are important. But when all is said and
done, the fact is that as aircraft complexity has increased, the accident
rate has generally decreased. This is true even *since* such safety programs
were initiated--witness the low rate for the F-16, which has within its own
career grown increasingly complex (compare a F-16A Block 10 to the F-16C
Block 52). I do believe that its accident rate is abit lower than that of
the F-4, which had that whole extra engine included...


Complexity is not the sole issue as you point out. Sometimes it goes toward
mission accomplishment, sometimes survivability, and some of that complexity
goes toward increasing flight safety. In the case of the F-16 or the
F/A-18, the mechanical complexity associated with the flight controls
actually keeps those aircraft in the air. In the case of the F-14, the DFCS
makes the jet more stable. The complexity of the F-35B when compared to the
C or the A only gives it an additional option for landing--a complexity with
several possible single point failures in a critical flight regime.


Finally, how does the AV-8 accident rate imply a direct connection with
that
which can be expected for the F-35B, which will use a radically
different
lift system (partly because of the past problems with the AV-8?)?


Honestly, no one knows for sure. Most likely better because we've learned
some important lessons from the AV-8A/B and are applying a different
solution to the problem of STOVL. My guess is that because it still
relies
on more moving parts than it's CTOL counterparts in a critical phase of
flight, it'll have a higher mishap rate.

Maybe. But then again, maybe not. For all we know the typically "increased
risk" associated with operatins from a CVN may lead to the C model having a
worse accident record. I don't think there is enough information that
*could* be available at this point to postively conclude either way.


My experience tells me that the STOVL will crash more than the CV which will
crash more than the CTOL.


Again, unofficial dinner poll: Opinion of the STOVL F-35? Not worth it.

OK. But go back to those folks and ask them to earnestly try to put
themselves in the boots of the brigade commander on the ground who has
troops in contact, is outnumbered (as we can expect to be in many cases),
and needs to shift his air support quickly from one target set to a whole
new class of targets, while also needing/desperately wanting an increase of
maybe 30% in the CAS sortie count--and oh, by the way, the nearest CTOL
fighter airstrip is 1000 miles away, since they have yet to reconstruct the
airfield in his AO that is supporting him via C-130 shuttle. Do you think
that *he* might value having a squadron (USAF type, with 24 birds) of SOVL
assets capable of hitting a FARP ten or twelve klicks to the rear of his CP?


Absolutely. There aren't many scenarios like this in the world, though.
China maybe? Even in OIF, aircraft from ship's in the north (much further
than in the south) transited only about 350NM ro so to get into theater.

Or alternatively, when the CVN's are all clustered in (choose body of water)
handling the major contingency going down with (choose potential foe), and
your USMC BLT is forced to devite from its transit to that area while
enroute and FRAGO'd to execute operations independently elsewhere, would you
want the services of some F-35B's operating as part of your parent amphib
strike group?


Again, a luxury. "All the CVN's" tells me that you could easily spit one to
support the strike group--up to the elephants to fight out.

SNIP
OK. I personally find the CVN to be of immense import--in specific
circumstances and conditions. Much like the F-35B--it ain't the best
all-around strike/CAS platform available, but it does have its niches.
Neither is necessarily the best tool for *all* potentialities.


And I would like the U.S. Military to buy every weapons system out there...
Including F-35B's (which they will). I'd like them to have the money to
continue to recapitalize filling Carrier decks, and ARG's and MAG's with
aircraft. I'd like them to buy SATCOM for all of my Army buddies on the
ground--you get the picture.

I disagree with the way we've decided to spend our limited funds (F-35B, CV
version with no gun, F-22, etc).

Are you still at China Lake? Wonderful place (note my sarcasm)...right next
to that other gardenspot I used to frequent on occasion, FT Irwin (even more
sarcasm). Last time I went through that area I spent the night in that
little town near the main entrance to China Lake, enroute to Lone Pine for a
few days fishing in the higher elevations.

Brooks

Nope. Left there for the fleet in 1996. Loved living there though. Best
flying I've ever done. Worked for a great boss. Learned a LOT about RDT&E,
BRAC, civil servants, and the ins and outs of large organizations.

--Woody