On 5 May 2006 12:09:47 -0700, "Jay Honeck" wrote
in . com::

Please explain how the 'big sky theory' will PROTECT you from a MAC.

It won't protect you from it

That is my point.

-- but the odds of a mid-air collision happening in many areas are so
incredibly small as to be virtually zero.

Terrific! Then you'd only be "virtually" dead. :-(

Please describe a few of the areas you think have incredibly small
odds of a MAC.

Example: If you fly in the mid-levels (4 - 8K feet) over rural Iowa,
your odds of being hit by a meteor are probably greater than your odds
of hitting another aircraft. You could probably fly on autopilot with
your eyes closed for 100 years, and never even come close to a MAC.

Doubtful. I'm not convinced. In any event, I'm uncomfortable with
introducing any more probability into flight than necessary.

A competent airman calculates the fuel requirements for a flight,
rather than saying, "there's PROBABLY enough fuel. Nothing to chance
....

Even in the busy airspace around Chicago, the odds are still greatly in
your favor.

I'm sure that's what the victims of these MACs thought too:

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....

I read somewhere once (and someone here will have the
exact figure, I'm sure) that if you put EVERY aircraft in America in
the air at once, they would still only occupy a few cubic miles of sky,
with ample air space in between aircraft.

I don't find that dubious statistic credible.

Which is not to say that you shouldn't keep your eyes outside, and that
weird stuff doesn't happen. We were flying over middle-of-no-where
South Dakota once when ATC called out traffic at our altitude (10,500
feet), on a converging course.

Thank you.

ATC told the other guy the same thing,
and we gradually merged into a single dot on ATC's radar. In the end,
we were talking to each other on Center frequency, trying to give each
other cues as to our location. ("I'm over that blue water tower at the
intersection -- you see that?")

Nothing worked. ATC eventually gave us different altitudes and
headings -- and we never did see each other. It was very, very
strange.

But, of course, the bottom line: We didn't hit.

That time. But what if relying on the 'big sky theory' for separation
had convinced you not to request Radar Traffic Advisory Service?

The "Big Sky" theory worked again.

No; prudence and Radar Traffic Advisory Service saved your lives.

The 'big sky theory' is for fools and "true believers."