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In which case they would use mines, ships are more easily sunk by
letting water in the bottom than by letting air in to the top. Mines
really are cheap and effective weapons.

Not necesarily. You have to lay mines.

Easily done by anything from a traditional dhow to a helicopter

The US could blow the ship out
of the water.

They'd have to know you were laying mines. The straits of Hormuz are passed
by dozens of Iranian vessels every day (and night). Covert mine laying
is old hat.


UAVs are mobile. You can launch them from deep inside
Iran. Also mines being static can be swept.

Not a simple task, especially if the minesweepers are subject to attack

A mobile mine (a USB) would
be quite a threat.


Floating mines have existed for many decades


Note that the Iranians are as dependent on free traffic movement through
the straits as everyone else.

True, but

1) They might be prepared to hurt themselves to hurt us. In a full
scale war they wont care.


I suspect they will when they run out of money and food

I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you. High oil prices have
allowed Iran to build up about $40Billion in foreign capital
reserves. As for the hunger factor--according to the FAO,
Iran is a net exporter of food.

http://www.fao.org/countryprofiles/i...so3=IRN&subj=4

2) They will time the passage and routes of their own vessels so that
they don't get attacked.


And you dont think the USN would interict their ships huh ?


Probably---but would they stop Japanese and Chinese ships loaded
with Iranian oil that has already been purchased?

If deterrence really did work defense policy would be a lot simpler.


Keith


Mark Borgerson