Jim Carriere wrote:

Bob Moore wrote:

Jim Carriere wrote

Mxsmanic wrote:

Fortunately, mathematics can help. If everyone flies around
completely at random, it's statistically wildly improbable that any
aircraft will ever collide. In fact, traffic patterns, airways,
altitude restrictions, and navaids actually increase the chances of a
collision, rather than decreasing

This has to be one of the funniest things I've read in a long LONG
time!
Thanks for the laugh!


Sorry Jim, I think that the laugh might be on you. In the late 1950s,
the Rand Corp under contract to the US government to study the future
of the Air Traffic Control System, came to the exact same conclusion.
And yes, they did use predictions of future air traffic growth.


Hmm! At first glance that conclusion seems counterintuitive, but I
guess you learn something new every day.

Actually, it is very intuitive. If I put 100 people on a football field
and blind fold them and tell them to just walk around, how often will
they run into each other? Now if I put 100 people in a hallway that is
4' wide and 100 yards long and have them randomly walk around, how often
will they run into each other?

Airways and traffic patterns concentrate the traffic into a much small
volume. This will greatly increase the risk of collision and it seems
very intuitive to me.

Matt