In message , Kevin
Brooks writes
Vince Brannigan wrote in message
...
Not on net.. you only add to the GDP if tge investment iws greater than
the opportunity cost. its liek borrowing money at 10 percent to ivest
at 5 percent. you dont get to count just the profit.

I would strongly suspect that the F-16, which has sold less than half
its total production to the USAF (the remainder going to foreign
sales), and then seen a significant number of its own early build
aircraft resold or leased to other nations, would likely come out on
the plus side, especially when the attendant services, rebuilds, and
modifications are included.

That's one example. How many F-101s, F-102s, F-105s or F-106s were
exported? (The Lightweight Fighter Mafia would claim that the USAF had
to be forced to buy F-16s at gunpoint, but then I disagree with them
too)

Also, the "export sale" argument is open to some argument. US FMS is a
killer in the export market, simply because the US is often willing to
effectively _pay_ customers to accept platforms (that will then be tied
to US suppliers for spares, support and reloads).

It has cost the USA over 10 Billion dollars in development costs for the
V-22. At the moment its as productive as a non working bicycle lock.
Even if it works it is unclear that the investment will ever be recoved
in any way shape or form.

Trust you to bring the Osprey into the mix. Are you prepared to bet
your life's savings that the civil version built by AB won't be a
moneymaker?

My own gut feeling is that it won't succeed in the US, and will be
marginal elsewhere.

What does it do in the civil sector that beats a helo for VTOL or a
puddlejumper for STOVL? When "real performance on a hot day" hits
payload needs, I'm not sure the Osprey delivers (to say nothing of
casual short-notice air travel over city centres... is that safe?)

And BTW, it has flown, and it does have firm orders on the
books.

Thirty years ago, so did Concorde. Everything worked technically, but
there was no market pull for mass production. There just aren't that
many people who will pay to halve their trans-Atlantic flight time, now
or then, to justify more than a few prototypes..

--
When you have to kill a man, it costs nothing to be polite.
W S Churchill

Paul J. Adam