"Hilton" wrote in message
news
I absolutely agree that it *appears* that the CFI messed up. Most
accident
sequences are pretty 'obvious', this one included. But just when you
think
the cause is obvious, it turns out to be something else. I've just seen
too
many accident reports like this to state absolutely what happened only a
few
days after the accident with minimal investigation.

Agreed. But Tom merely stated conservatively that mechanical failure was not
a "likely cause", based on the available evidence. If anything, I think
that's an understatement.

Perhaps some guy taxied into the ILS critical area by mistake? Heck, I
don't know.

Even if that happened, and went unnoticed at the time, and remains unknown
to the NTSB so far, the CFI should have gone missed upon reaching the DA
(according to topographic maps, the terrain at the crash site was at most a
few feet higher than the TDZE). And even if his altimeter or static system
*also* failed--which it didn't, given the agreement of ATC's radar with the
altitude the CFI reported moments before crashing--he should have gone
missed when he received the low-altitude alert. Even with latitude to
speculate freely, no one here has proposed a plausible scenario consistent
with the available facts that doesn't include a major blunder by the CFI
during the approach.

While the 'obvious' conclusion is that the CFI screwed up, let's not trash
the guy's
name too early in the investigation.

As opposed to suggesting that his student committed a murder-suicide? In
any case, to propose that the CFI made a critical mistake while flying is
not to accuse him of negligence or other moral culpability; I don't think it
"trashes" him.

Aside from the apparent in-flight mistake, Tom also impugns the CFI's
judgment in undertaking the flight at all, given the reported and forecast
weather conditions. I disagree with Tom's assessment there, but that's a
different question--the actual cause of the crash, whatever it turns out to
be, isn't relevant to whether the decision to fly was warranted by the
information available to the CFI at that time; there's no need to await a
final report before debating *that* question.

--Gary