Andrew Sarangan wrote:
On Thursday, January 3, 2013 1:34:32 PM UTC-5, wrote:


If by "not too distant future" you mean 50 years, than I think a big

maybe.



Absent some astounding breakthrough in portable electric generation, i.e.

all devices such as fuel cells and not just batteries, I doubt the all

electric vehicle will ever become a significant fraction of vehicles on

the road.



Hybrid vehicles stand a much better chance, the biggest current obstacle

being the huge premium in cost.

When airplanes were invented, many argued that it will never become an
economical transportation.

When airplanes were invented, the limitations were material technology,
not the basic physics of the power plant.

When computers were invented, even the president of IBM said he does
not think there was much of a market for personal computers.

When computers were invented they were the size of a small house, cost
millions of dollars, and a fortune in power and air conditioning to work.

It took improvements in the technology to eliminate all those problems,
not a basic break through in the physics and chemistry of any part.

When automobiles were invented, it was criticized for being so
unreliable compared to the horse.

When automobiles were invented they were praised by many for not filling
city streets with horse **** and as material technology improved, so did
the reliability. None of this required any break through in either physics
or chemistry.

On the other hand, there as just as many examples where things did not
work out. Like the space program. We never went back to the moon or set
up a permanent colony.

We never went back because no one wantee to pay for it, much like no one
wants to pay a bunch of money for a niche vehicle.

America enjoyed the prosperity from the automobile, airplane and computers.
Electric vehicles could just be the next big thing. While there is no
guarantee of success, failure is pretty much guaranteed if we don't try.

Oh, we are "trying" allright and failure is guaranteed by basic physics
and chemistry until, if ever, there is an astounding breakthrough.

Millions in tax dollars are being poured into the electric car rat hole
in subsidies with no positive results.

What we have instead of results are sales that are almost nonexistant
and lawsuits like those in Arizona because electric car batteries react
to the heat just like anyone with any knowledge of battery chemistry
would expect them to; range nowhere near advertised and a very short life.

If the government were not forcing the manufacture of electric cars through
emission standards and subsidies there would be none manufactured