Chip,

thank you very much for your insightful comment! I think you are spot on. Ambitious, but less-skilled pilots are likely at the greatest risk because they may be tempted to compensate a lack of skill with extra risk (consciously or subconsciously). If they give in to temptation they become an accident waiting to happen. As you point out that may explain many of the "follower" accidents in Dave Nadler's essay.

If I go back to the Condor simulator data that I used for my analysis, I think this may explain a significant chunk of the extraordinary difference in crash rates between the top pilots and the one's at the bottom. In my analysis, I haven't figured out how to control the results for differences in skills (difficult to do) but I think it's very likely that you are right and that that this is a major factor.

Thanks again for taking the time to share your perspective!

Clemens