Thread: Future of GA
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Old October 23rd 04, 06:48 AM
C Kingsbury
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Count me as an optimist-slash-realist.

On the optimist side: Two weeks ago I flew the Hudson River Corridor. After
9/11, who would have thought we'd ever see that again? And it's not as if
there's been any kind of sustained public outcry to close it. This, for me,
is the canary in the coalmine. If the ban-GA forces can't push us out of
this, they're sure as heck not going to pull it off anywhere else.

Likewise, the whole Sport Pilot/LSA scene is the best news in, oh, a couple
of decades? Finally here's something that addresses the two biggest problems
GA faces today: it takes too long to earn a useful license, and airplanes
cost too much. This will help increase the number of certificated pilots,
and the proportion of pilots who actually stay active.

On the realist side: The cost of operating a real x-country plane is only
going to increase. Minijets like the eclipse may bring private jet charter
within the reach of a hundred thousand more people but they won't make it
cheaper to fly around in a Skylane or Bonanza. Avgas prices in the $4-$5
range are going to have people giving light twins away in a decade or so,
assuming we can even still buy 100LL. Cirrus, Cessna, and the other leading
manufacturers should really be trying to move towards either JET-A diesels
or engines that can run mogas. Continental and Lycoming likewise ought to
really be thinking a bit more about their future here. If all the engines
out there today turn to pumpkins, they are not going to be selling a lot of
parts.

Likewise, we may see the FAA enforce RNP standards that would require much
of the fleet to carry out costly upgrades, not unlike RVSM. As I understand,
AOPA is advocating for FAA/NASA to support the development of portable ADS-B
systems not unlike today's portable GPS receivers, targeting $2500 as the
critical price level. What we need to do is come up with a way to install
and certify equipment like this at lower cost. We are drawing closer to the
point at which our and the FAA's interests on this will intersect. If there
is a way to get traffic, a moving map, terrain-avoidance, and precision
navigation, installed, for less than $5000, then it will be adopted very
quickly throughout the GA fleet voluntarily. This will simplify and enhance
the ongoing push to modernize the air traffic system.

As for bringing young people into flying, I wouldn't worry so much. The
desire to fly arrives for most of us like a vocation, and I think it's
something of a constant in humanity. All we need to do is remove as many
obstacles as we can, and good things will follow.

GA will always I think be with us in some form. I obviously hope it will be
something more diverse and attainable than what we currently see in Europe,
but I'm not concerned that the only way to get into the air in a decade or
two will be in a Southwest people tube.

-cwk.