"Mike Schumann" wrote in message
.. .
I can't imagine that happening. Until there is a replacement for 100LL,
with the number of aircraft flying in the US, there will be a supply from
somewhere. The big question will be the cost.

Mike Schumann

The volume of fuel consumed by the US piston fleet is miniscule - less than
1% of all gasoline production and thus doesn't even appear on the radar of
fuel producers. I think the idea that "supply will meet demand" is a risky
one. As far as they are concerned, anything less than 1% is no demand at
all. The liabilities involved in handling TEL far outweigh potential
profits.

I think we are in the last stages of an economic "death spiral" for AVGAS.
High prices mean lower demand. Lower demand means higher price per gallon
since fixed overhead is spread over fewer gallons. Still higher prices
further reduces demand. In effect, it's "economies of scale" working in
reverse.

However, there may be hope. See:
http://www3.baylor.edu/bias/publicat...ayaircraft.pdf

This paper describes obtaining an STC for operating a Pawnee on ethanol.
Note that the engine described is the fuel injected Lycoming IO-540 and not
the more common carburated O-540.

Nonetheless, given enough money, it's possible to convert a O-540 to fuel
injection since the injector bosses are cast into the cylinder heads - one
need only drill them for injectors. Converting a fuel injected engine to
ethanol is relatively easy. The modifications required to use ethanol with
a carburator are not really feasable.

Note the large increase in fuel consumption - ~40%. This probably
eliminates ethanol as a fuel for long range cross country airplanes but for
"fixed point" operators like crop dusters and glider towing operations, it's
a PITA but workable.

The total modifications required would be to convert the O-540 to fuel
injection using injectors suitable for ethanol and, since the cylinders have
to be removed anyway, it would be desirable to replace the pistons to
achieve a higher compression ratio. If it were desired to keep refueling
stops to the same intervals as with AVGAS, larger tanks would be needed.

The downside is that the conversion will be costly. The upside is that we
maintain the availability of aero tows, we get more performance from the
Pawnee and, possibly, greater engine life due to cooler running cylinders.

Bill Daniels





"Bill Daniels" bildan@comcast-dot-net wrote in message
. ..

"Dave Newill" wrote in message
...
On Mar 4, 12:32 am, "Mike Schumann" mike-nos...@traditions-
nospam.com wrote:
They will keep making TEL untill it is no longer profitable.

I visited GAMA headquarters to understand the situation on AvGAs from
their expert. He said that the tanker (ship) that carries the TEL will
be decommissioned in a few years - that will not stop it from being
shipped from its source (Russia) as it will simply be put into triple
walled sea-tainers - but the amount shipped each time will be smaller
and the insurance - as it is being shipped with other goods - will be
higher.

It will not go away - but it will be very expensive -however there is
so little of it in the fuel that it thankfully does not take much.
Also note that it is not shipped by pipeline - must be shipped by
truck so as not to pollute the pipes! Finally, there is a Friends of
the Earth petition getting hearing in congress to remove lead from all
fuels - if you think we have problems - think about all those outboard
motors out there!



The only producer of TEL is the Octane Additives Division of Innospec
(formerly Octel) - A UK based company. I believe, but can't find
referencable sources, that the actual TEL production is at a plant near
Madras, India. I have found no references to Russian production.

From reading press releases in financial publications, it appears that
revenue and profitability of the OA division is in a steep decline
(50%/year). The parent company is loading accounting charges onto the
Octane Additives Division in the form of "Goodwill Impairments". They
are also making statements to the effect that the future business of the
division will be "environmental remediation activities". The company is
now accepting bids in India for the dismantling and desposal of the
worlds only TEL tanker ship. This looks like an imminent shutdown of TEL
production.

I did find a comment that there is a six months supply of TEL in the US.
It appears to a casual reader that the end for TEL may indeed very near.

Bill D






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