"Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
"a425couple" wrote:
"Eugene Griessel" wrote in message...
"a425couple" wrote:
In 2001 a US reconisance plane fell into Chinese
hands for full examination.
If pilot Osburn had tried to fly as far as he could
toward an 'authorized' airport and had to 'ditch'
in the open ocean, what were the chances of
the 24 crew surviving?

What a question. If you are in a head-on collision with another car
what are your chances of surviving?

I'm sorry you do not like it.
They range from 0% to 100%, don't they?
The reason I asked it on these newsgroups, is that I thought
there might be some who could give historical information
to pin it down better than "from 0% to 100%".

Explain how anyone could do that?
No matter how many prior successful ditchings have occurred you have
no way of knowing the one you are heading into will be survivable.
You can console yourself with prior statistics until you are blue in
the face but you will not know until you either survive or otherwise.
Each ditching is in a way unique - just as most crash-landings are.
People have walked away from mangled twisted burning wreckage without
a crease in their trousers and others have been killed when the
aircraft appears undamaged. I recall a Spitfire making a controlled
wheels down "crash-landing" on a long stretch of sandy beach due to
engine failure. Ideal, but at the very last the thing tipped up -
and the pilot having loosened his harness for a quick getout was
thrown out of the cockpit and his head contacted the only rock in 1/2
a mile in any direction. Those days they still wore leather helmets
otherwise he might have survived. The aircraft was righted, the engine
problem repaired and it was flown back to base - not even the prop was
damaged. The pilot however had a load of mush in a leather helmet
where his head used to be.

He was able to control it well enough to fly it 70 miles
and land it at an airport (Red Chinese).
Have any Orions been 'ditched' i.e. controled landings
on water?

Is something else going on with you today Eugene?
(From reading a question to launching a criticism in 12 minutes!?)

Explain how anyone could do that?

Odds and probabilities.
That is how most of us make many decisions each
and every day. Yes, every action MIGHT result in
disaster. But we still get out and do things.
But we do try to do things in a reasonable manner
to increase the odds of a reasonable outcome.
And this is even more important when something
has already gone badly wrong.

Even with your logic, and example. By the same token
Osborn trying to land at the airport could have gone
very wrong and killed everyone.
He considered odds and probabilities.
What likely were some of the prior facts that he considered in
his calculations?

{ 'No matter how many prior successful *
* insert choice of
sail boatings / sports car races / vacations / rock climbs
have occurred you have no way of knowing the one you are
heading into will be survivable. You can console yourself with prior
statistics until you are blue in the face but you will not know until
you either survive or otherwise.' }