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Old March 5th 21, 06:16 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
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Posts: 1,939
Default $1 billion BMS Ooops...

2G wrote on 3/5/2021 8:29 AM:
On Thursday, March 4, 2021 at 8:22:34 AM UTC-8, Eric Greenwell wrote:
2G wrote on 3/3/2021 6:11 PM:

....

ICO glider engines have been developed over the last 70 years or so. And, then, many of them have come from the 2-cycle engine applications such as snowmobiles and ultralights. The electric glider market is much more immature..

That immaturity means they have a lot of promise, compared to the ICE gliders. We know in 5
years the performance of the electrics will increase significantly; the fossil fueled ones -
not nearly so much. Even at the current immature stage, they are so desirable, all the major
manufacturers, and some of the second tier, offer at least two electric models in mast or FES
varieties.

I suggest that in maybe 5, but certainly in 10 years, the discussions will no longer be about
gas vs electric, but which electric to buy.
--

yhttps://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1

Wishful thinking duly noted. The development, deployment and long-term flight experience of aircraft takes time. Ten years is a good estimate for a single model such as the Antares. Its first flight was in 2003, so development must have started about 20 years ago. I think that in 5 to 10 years we will be thinking "Boy, those electric gliders looked promising at the time, but if we knew then what we know now I would never have bought one." Successful product development just can't be rushed.

It's not wishful thinking when there are four companies selling electric glider power systems:
Lange, Solo, Pipistrel, and LZ Design (FES). The glider manufacturers do not have to design
their own system, like Antares had to. That speeds development (even eliminates it in some
cases), reduces their cost, and increases reliability.

While the glider market is very small, the main component - batteries - is under intense
development by major corporations around the world. We will benefit from this investment,
without investing a dime in it.

As for glider pilots feeling sorry for their current electric choices in 5 or 10 years, well,
I'm going to suggest many glider pilots will be feeling sorry for their current gas engine
choices ;^)
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1


Predicting the future is ALWAYS wishful thinking. If you could actually do it reliably you would be a billionaire. Having four companies doing it doesn't mean the development is 4 times as fast, you just get 4 possible failures instead of one.

There are already some pieces of "common wisdom" that have been debunked. One is that electric is inherently more reliable than ICE. The fire incidents are of greatest concern. Dave's issues with his Antares are also troubling - systems that are dependent on complex software can have failure modes that are only found by extensive testing. I know of another Antares owner who had to fly a technician over from Germany to fix the problems with his glider. And the small numbers of electric gliders means that buyers will ultimately do most of the testing themselves. Long term support of these complex systems is yet another question.

I apologize to all readers for the repetition: The Antares was a pioneering effort, and you can
recognize a pioneer by the arrows in his back. Schleicher, Schempp-Hirth, Jonkers, and others,
are not following the Antares path. They are not pioneers, but cautious "settlers" that follow
after the pioneers have showed them where to go.

There are far more FES gliders flying than Antares, and very successfully. The problems that
occur are solved by LZ Design, not the glider manufacturers. The eglider segment of gliding has
reached the "specialization" stage, and to talk about Dave's Antares problems is to miss the
future because you are focusing on a pioneering glider designed and built almost two decades ago.

The future, which is now, includes mast-mounted options from several manufacturers. The "old"
manufacturers got old by not being too bold: they are cautious, risk-adverse companies that see
a burgeoning opportunity they have to join. There will not be fleets of egliders from these
companies 5 or 10 years from now, sitting on the ground, unused.

I've seen this happen before, with the ASH26E (my current glider), which was quite bold in
1994: the first retracting self-launching sailplane from Schleicher, using a Wankel engine, and
- horrors - only a 18m wingspan when there was no 18M class! There were problems, especially in
the first 5 years, but they made it work, didn't they? You've owned one! And they (and the
other manufacturers) will make the egliders work, and work well.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorg...ad-the-guide-1