On Nov 21, 10:11*pm, PaPa Peng wrote:
China is a long way from militarily being able to threaten the U.S. a nuke
exchamnge would be bad for the U.S. annhiliation for china.

Grow up Ray. *No one is interested in threatening the US. * China's
build-up is to neutralize the US's ability to act bullyboy. *Read the
most recent post in SMN....."CHINA'S NAVY MAKES "IMPRESSIVE" STRIDES,
SAYS ONI
* from [link], "

You guys are making much ado about nothing. Comparing to the US, China
still has to deal with much more serious domestic problem, especially
now China has reached or about to reach the limit on export-led growth
and Chinese domestic infrastructure is already upgraded to the point
where room for further infrastructure investment led growth is also
limited, not to mention the cap placed on China's future growth by
natural resource and what's bound to be serious conflict on trade with
major Chinese trading partners, starting with the US. In sum, China
and Chinese leadership know the biggest problem facing them: how to
untie the ugly messy knot of domestic employment vs limit on resource
vs massive unsustainable trade surplus without tipping the balance
underpinning China's growth: largely stable domestic political
environment and essentially enemyless external environment. Pushing
for urbanization, establishing nation-wide health care system, massive
international scourging for resources, massive investment in
alternative energy and R&D are all taken either to buy more time or as
means to, hopefully, untie the unsustainable path China is trekking on
right now.

The whole process is fraught with risk and is by now means assured of
success, any external instability poses risk to the plan, even
assuming everything goes well and every plan works out as intended,
it'd take decades at the very least to rebalance domestic Chinese
environment and domestic Chinese economy to the point that China is in
a position to assume the risk of engaging in major confrontation
against other major powers. China's political move internationally
since the end of cold war is very clear: do whatever it can to avoid
conflict, do whatever it can to avoid instability that China must deal
with at all cost. For politically reasons, Taiwan is the only place
where if certain turn of event really occurs, China'd have to
intervene whether it's ready or not. For all the political provocation
and push for independence during the 8 years when pro-independence
party was in power in Taiwan, China didn't make any really serious
move against Taiwan, economic exchange went on without much
interruption; lots of acrimonious back and forth, but nothing of any
consequence actually happened; militarily, yeah, China is upgrading
its military, clearly to prepare to fight a war against Taiwan and the
US, but I firmly believe it's more a defensive move, a prepare-for-the-
worst move, it's a measure taken to ensure that if Chinese political
leadership were to be pushed into the corner in the even of formal
declaration of independence by Taiwan, Chinese military'd be at least
somewhat prepared.

For the foreseeable future, China would not do anything to disrupt the
status quo across the Taiwan strait because they're fully aware of the
enormity, severity and potential risk of massive economic, political,
social, regional of in China. China as a country, Chinese government
as a government, Chinese leadership for their own political legacy and
survival, can't afford any distraction. In the foreseeable future,
the ball is in Taiwan's court, as long as Taiwan refrains from formal
declaration of independence, there would be no break out of
hostilities across Taiwan street. China's hands are too full to risk
an external war which even if China wins, would ruin the equilibrium
China must have to move forward.