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Old May 16th 07, 11:34 PM posted to rec.aviation.owning
Robert M. Gary
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Posts: 2,767
Default Avgas availability

On May 16, 6:18 am, "Matt Barrow"
wrote:
"kontiki" wrote in message

...

Matt Whiting wrote:


Anyone seeing any avgas shortages? I just learned that a local airport
(7N1) is out of gas. The FBO has a 10,000 gallon tank and ordered fuel
back in February and still hasn't received it. He ran out yesterday...


Matt


No, but I've been hearing reports that supply is very tight. The reasons
of course are this country's complete failure to improve infastructure
or explore for more supply of an important commodity.


Oh, they know where it is (Continental shelf, ANWR, etc.), so exploration is
rather worthless.

Thus supply is
very short, demand is up and so are prices. Its economics 101.


Right now, two of the biggest refineries are shut down for maintenance, and
one had to be shut down for unexpected repairs. Petro industry people warned
about this for years and Katrina wasn't the wakeup call that cementheads
needed.

As most every one knows, we've not built a refinery in the US in 32 years,
and during that time



When supply is tight, fule suppliers with do what they call
"allocating". Customers that are not branded (and just shop
around for the lowest prices when they need fuel) can be left
without fuel in favore of allocated customers. It happened
for a while when Katrina hit.


http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...63601990515635

/quote
Our refineries are doing more than ever, but their numbers are dwindling and
no new ones are being built. The reason is not greed, but cost and
regulations. From 1994 to 2003, the refining industry spent $47.4 billion,
not to build new refineries, but to bring existing ones into compliance with
ever new and stringent environmental rules. That's where those allegedly
excessive profits go.

In 2006, the blending of ethanol into gasoline reached a new high of more
than five billion gallons and production if new clean-burning ultra
low-sulfur diesel fuel topped a record 2.6 million barrels a day at the end
of last year.

The fact is that U.S. refining capacity has been growing at about 1% a year
for the past decade - the equivalent of adding a mid-size refinery every
year. Since 1996, U.S. refiners have expanded capacity by more than 2
million barrels a day This is a remarkable achievement in the face of
environmental mandates setting new ethanol usage and low-sulfur
requirements.

But the last major refinery built in the U.S. was in Garyville, La., in 1976
and the ones we have are getting older, no matter how well they're
maintained. Fifty out of 194 refineries were shut down from 1990 to 2004.
There is no slack in the system. Like the cars they fuel, periodic
maintenance us required.

/end

BTW, regarding that 2 million bbls/day of expanded capacity (we use, what,
10 million a day?), two studies several years ago (late 70's early 80s')
calculated we could save over 10% annually on gas usage by merely
coordinating traffic signals better. Of course, that would mean localities
would possibly have to give up $$billions in reveune from fines. It also
means that those self-same localities would have to get off their asses and
do the work of setting them correctly. Fat chance: the built-in congestion
is now FAR worse, with traffic cams and the like. NO, it's so much easier to
pontificate "Public Service" BS like "share a ride", "ride your bike"...
It's nice to have the advertising budget, too.

--
Matt Barrow (14 years in the road design/building business)
Performace Homes, LLC.
Colorado Springs, CO


All very true. However, lack of capacity does not result in shortages
as the OP suggests. In a free market lack of capacity or supply
results in higher prices. Now, if the democrats try to cap prices or
increase the tax on gas the restricted capacity would result in
shortages.

-Robert